Dividend Review – June 2022 – 2022 Bear Market

We’re square in the middle of 2022 and maybe somewhere in the middle of the 2022 bear market. That latter is certainly harder to predict as a bear market can take quite some time to play out.

The 2020 bear market barely took more than a month to play out before stocks started to rise again but still took 5 months for a full recovery. This one is already slightly longer.

Generally, a bear market is when indexes fall 20% from all time highs and while we’re a bit above that now after a few positive days, the market is still in turmoil. This time around the 2022 bear market took 5.3 months for an official definition but who knows if this is the bottom or if there’s more pain to come.

After all, bear markets often have false bottoms, dead cat bounces and all that stuff before really hitting a full bottom.

The 2007 bear market, for example, took 17 months before it found its lows followed by a 49 month recovery. The 2000 recession took 31 months to bottom with a 56 month recovery. Others have been worse as shown below. Some will say that the 1973 is most comparable due to rising inflation and that one took 21 months to bottom with a 69 month recovery! Hopefully that’s not the case here.